It's now November, the time of the year when our minds begin to be preoccupied with holiday travel plans, gift ideas and bracing for the long winter ahead.
And of course, the NFL playoffs as well.
Though little has been solved in regards to the most anticipated portion of the professional football calendar as this hard-to-figure 2011 season nears its midway point, as 19 of the league's 32 entries are presently sporting winning records and 22 teams stand no worse than one game out of a postseason spot at the moment, it's still an entertaining exercise to take a stab on what could possibly happen over the next couple of months.
Therefore, we hereby present to you a detailed look at the postseason prospects for the AFC's crop of teams heading into the second half of the schedule, with the NFC to be analyzed in next week's column.
That's how the teams would stack up in terms of playoff seeding if the season ended today.
It should be noted that the six clubs that were in this category at this point a year ago all advanced to the playoffs, obviously good news for supporters of the Bills and Bengals -- the two most pleasant surprises in the AFC through the season's first half. It's also somewhat of a sign of validation for the Texans, the lone NFL franchise that's yet to make an appearance in the postseason.
Being on this list is going to guarantee anything, however, especially when factoring in how tight all the races are at this stage. The AFC West looks to be particularly muddled, with the Chiefs engaged with Oakland and San Diego in a three-way deadlock that doesn't figure to be decided until the final block of games on New Year's Day.
Buffalo is perhaps the most interesting of this lot. With two games still to play against the potentially-disinterested Dolphins and a home encounter with doormat Denver also on tap, the Bills likely aren't going to go away. How the longtime also-rans handle tough road tilts with Dallas, the Jets, San Diego and New England will ultimately determine their playoff fate, however.
THE CONTENDERS Baltimore (5-2), New York Jets (4-3), Tennessee (4-3), San Diego (4-3), Oakland (4-3)
This bracket contains three members who have all made multiple playoff appearances in the last three years in the Ravens, Jets and Chargers, and one that hasn't made it to the postseason since 2002 (the Raiders).
Both Baltimore and New York have big games on the road against a first-place team in their respective divisions this weekend, with the Jets traveling to upstate New York to battle the upstart Bills and the Ravens renewing their rivalry with a Pittsburgh squad set on avenging a 35-7 dressing-down by its hated foe in Baltimore back in Week 1. While Sunday's clash won't be do-or-die for the Jets, who still get to host both Buffalo and New England later in the season, the Ravens may have a tough time overtaking the resurgent Steelers for the AFC North crown with a loss.
None of the three AFC West candidates appears to possess a more favorable path than the others, with the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders all having a slew of challenging non-division matchups down the stretch. It wouldn't be the least surprising if not one emerges from the pack entering the final two weeks, making the division's representative dependent on how Oakland's Christmas Eve trip to Kansas City and San Diego's voyage to the Black Hole in the regular- season finale each play out.
Even though they're essentially in a two-horse race with Houston for AFC South superiority, the Titans seem to be the least threatening of this bunch. Tennessee has already lost twice within the division, including a 41-7 dismantling by the Texans two weeks back, and the Week 17 showdown between the clubs will take place in Houston. A Wild Card bid could be a possibility, but the Titans don't look as strong as the runners-up in both the East and North.
THE LONGSHOTS Cleveland (3-4), Denver (2-5), Jacksonville (2-6)
The Browns are already two games behind their next closest competitor in the rugged AFC North and still have to face the Steelers and Ravens twice and the Bengals on the road. The Broncos and Jaguars are only mentioned here because of their relative proximity in the standings, but the truth is neither owns a realistic chance of contending unless their struggling young quarterbacks suddenly improve by leaps and bounds over the next two months.
Pretty self-explanatory here. The Dolphins' tough remaining schedule makes them the current favorites in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, as the Colts do have three upcoming home games (Jacksonville, Carolina, Tennessee) that would be considered winnable.
TOUGHEST ROAD: Cincinnati. The Bengals' long-term future may be very bright, but their outlook doesn't look so rosy in the weeks ahead. Cincinnati still has two games remaining with the two AFC North heavyweights, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and a home date with Houston and road test at Tennessee won't be cakewalks either.
EASIEST ROAD: Houston. The Texans aren't just a strong bet to capture the AFC South, but a first-round bye as a top-two seed is well within reach when glancing at the schedule. Assuming it avoids any catastrophic injuries, Houston should be favored in every game with the possible exception of road bouts with Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, and neither of those two can be considered daunting assignments.
GAMES YOU WON'T WANT TO MISS Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Nov. 6) New England at N.Y. Jets (Nov. 13) Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (Nov. 27) Buffalo at San Diego (Dec. 11) Baltimore at San Diego (Dec. 18) Oakland at Kansas City (Dec. 24) Buffalo at New England (Jan. 1) San Diego at Oakland (Jan. 1)
The Texans' early October victory over the Steelers could loom very large from a seeding standpoint down the road, as could the Chiefs' recent shutout of the Raiders in Carson Palmer's disastrous Silver and Black debut. If Kansas City winds up sweeping the Raiders, that may prove to be the difference in what's shaping up to be a down-to-the-wire AFC West race among three teams that all have been way too inconsistent to believe any will be able to separate themselves.
The AFC East and Wild Card battles also appear to be set up for thrilling finishes, with Buffalo giving the above choices a serious run for their money. But until the Bills show they can win a high-stakes game on the road against a quality team -- something the Patriots, Jets and Ravens have each proven on multiple occasions -- I'm leaving them just short of making the cut.
The Sports Network's updated NFL Power Poll, which ranks all 32 league teams, can be found at:
http://64.246.64.33/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=nfl/misc/nfl- poll.htm
Find Fantasy Editor Steve Schwarz's latest analysis at:
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= fantasy/index.aspx
1. Houston (vs. Cleveland) -- Texans are superior to the middling Browns in nearly every phase and shouldn't be severely tested as long as they show up ready to go.
2. San Francisco (at Washington) -- Redskins' offense is an absolute mess right now, and San Francisco's physical ground game will pose problems for a defense that's reversed course as of late.
3. Atlanta (at Indianapolis) -- Falcons appear as if they've finally got it together after starting slowly, while battered Colts have just about fallen completely apart.
A mixed bag of results from last week's predictions, as I was able to correctly peg 10 of 13 outright winners on the docket. Picking against the spread was another matter entirely, however, as I went a brutal 4-9 with the line involved. My overall record in the latter category fell to an uninspiring 51-61-4 (.457) for the season, offering ample evidence that this column should be used for entertainment purposes only, while the straight-up mark now stands at a more-convincing 73-43 (.629) through eight weeks.
Atlanta (4-3) at Indianapolis (0-8), Sunday, 1:00 (Atlanta -7)
Storylines: Injury-riddled Indianapolis begins stretch of three straight home games still in search of first victory of 2011, while rested Falcons shoot for third consecutive win and coming off Week 8 bye...Colts 13-1 all-time against Atlanta and have never lost to Falcons at home in six prior meetings...Atlanta moved to 2-2 on road this season with 23-16 decision over contending Detroit on Oct. 23 behind 122-yard effort from running back Michael Turner...Turner averaging 27 carries and 130.5 yards during team's two-game surge and faces Indianapolis defense ranked 31st versus run (144.0 ypg)...Falcons rookie receiver Julio Jones set to return from two-game absence due to hamstring injury, but offensive tackle Sam Baker (back) questionable and club placed fullback Ovie Mughelli (knee) on injured reserve last week...Running back Joseph Addai (hamstring) questionable for Colts, but rookie offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo (ankle) on track to play for first time since Week 4...Indianapolis 30th in NFL in scoring (15.1 ppg) and total yards (294.9 ypg), but gained season-best 399 yards (158 rushing) in 27-10 loss at Tennessee last Sunday...Colts also surrendering league-worst 31.5 points per game and are 31st in total defense (402.9 ypg), and haven't forced a turnover in five straight games.
Fast Fact: The Colts are one of only two teams, along with the 2010 Houston Texans, to allow at least 23 points in a season's first eight games over the past 30 years.
Prediction: Colts have actually been fairly competitive at home, but still won't have an answer for Turner and Atlanta's rediscovered running game. Falcons 31, Colts 20.
Storylines: AFC South-leading Texans aim for third straight win and maintained half-game edge on Tennessee in division standings with 24-14 home triumph over Jacksonville last Sunday...Browns have dropped three of four following 2-1 start and dealt 20-10 loss at NFC West front-runner San Francisco in Week 8...Both teams dealing with injuries to offensive stars, though Cleveland running back Peyton Hillis hopeful to return from two-game sit-out due to hamstring strain...Houston wideout Andre Johnson uncertain to play with hamstring pull that's sidelined him four consecutive weeks...No. 2 running back Montario Hardesty (calf) ruled out for Browns, with team signing journeyman Thomas Clayton and waiving wide receiver Brian Robiskie on Tuesday...Cleveland wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi probable, however, after missing last week with concussion...Texans running back Arian Foster posted second-straight 100-yard game against Jaguars and takes on Browns' 26th-ranked run defense (127.3 ypg) that permitted 174 yards on the ground to 49ers... Cleveland tied for 28th in scoring (15.3 ppg) and hasn't put up over 17 points in last five outings, while Houston fifth in scoring defense (18.1 ppg) and allowing third-fewest total yards (286.8 ypg) in league...Texans have held last two opponents to 174 yards or less.
Fast Fact: Texans are 4-0 this season and 28-3 all-time under head coach Gary Kubiak when they have 30 or more rushing attempts in a game.
Prediction: Texans have proven they can withstand Johnson's absence, and sputtering Browns haven't posed much of a threat to anyone as of late. Texans 20, Browns 13.
Miami (0-7) at Kansas City (4-3), Sunday, 1:00 (Kansas City -4)
Storylines: Matchup of teams going in opposite directions, with ascending Chiefs having won four consecutive times following 0-3 start and hard-luck Dolphins mired in 10-game losing streak dating back to last season...Kansas City moved into three-way tie for first place in AFC West after Monday's critical 23-20 overtime triumph over divisional foe San Diego, team's ninth regular-season victory in last 11 tests at Arrowhead Stadium...Miami failed to hold onto early 14-3 lead in tough 20-17 defeat at New York last Sunday, one week after blowing 15-point advantage in final three minutes in overtime setback to Denver...Dolphins running back Reggie Bush recorded first 100-yard rushing game since 2006 in Week 8 loss, while rookie backfield mate Daniel Thomas could return after missing Giants game with hamstring injury and cornerback Vontae Davis (hamstring) doubtful...Chiefs rookie wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin had career bests of five catches and 82 yards and scored first career touchdown versus Chargers, while quarterback Matt Cassel threw for season-high 261 yards...Kansas City still 28th overall in passing offense (184.1 ypg), while Miami 27th in pass defense (270.7 ypg) and allowed 344 yards through the air to Giants...Dolphins last in NFL in third-down conversions (25.8 percent) and have minus-eight turnover ratio on year.
Fast Fact: With Monday's win, the Chiefs became the fifth team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win four straight games following an 0-3 start, and first to accomplish the feat since the 2000 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Prediction: In a most familiar refrain, Dolphins will fight hard and keep it relatively close before ultimately being done in by a costly mistake or two. Chiefs 23, Dolphins 13.
Storylines: Important clash between AFC East contenders, with much-improved Bills presently tied with New England atop division and 2010 conference title game participant Jets one game back of co-leaders...Buffalo gained share of first place with 23-0 drubbing of reeling Washington last Sunday in Toronto and is 4-0 as home team this season...New York carried two-game win streak into Week 8 bye after rallying for 27-21 decision over San Diego on Oct. 23, but is 0-3 on road in 2011...Jets have bested Bills as visitor in three straight years, however, including 38-14 rout in Orchard Park last season, and have prevailed in five of last six meetings between clubs...Nose tackle Kyle Williams (foot) and offensive tackle Demetrius Bell (shoulder) both unlikely to play for Buffalo, but wide receiver Donald Jones (ankle) a possibility to return from two-game absence...Defensive lineman Mike Devito (knee) probable for New York, which signed former Bills tight end Shawn Nelson Monday and already has failed Buffalo 2009 first-round pick, outside linebacker Aaron Maybin, on roster...Bills backup quarterback/kick returner Brad Smith spent first five seasons with Jets (2006-10) and opposes ex-team for first time...Buffalo defense coming off first shutout since 2006 and racked up nine sacks against Redskins, including 2 1/2 from rookie lineman Marcell Dareus...Bills running back Fred Jackson second in NFL in rushing yards (103.0 ypg) and faces New York's 25th-ranked run defense (126.9 ypg)...Jets first in pass efficiency defense, however, and have yielded league-low four touchdowns through air...New York 0-2 in games following a bye week under head coach Rex Ryan.
Fast Fact: In two career games after a bye week, Jets quarterback ...
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