Mitch’s Free College Basketball Pick Against the Spread Written by Mitch on November 28, 2011 
The Cincinnati Bearcats and Miami Redhawks look to right the ship as they meet in Cincinnati.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (2-2) at Cincinnati Bearcats (3-2) Big East Network HD
Two old rivals collide as the Cincinnati Bearcats host the Miami Redhawks.
The expectations were high for the Cincinnati Bearcats after Mick Cronin’s team made the NCAA Tournament a year ago and losing to eventual champion UConn. UC returns a ton of talent and several players who can be relied on to score but thus far they have been upset twice in the early going and they are already going to have to shake things up when they hit their Big East schedule if they have hopes of eclipsing last season’s results. Yancy Gates is averaging 15 points and 9.2 rebounds, Sean Kilpatrick is averaging 14.6 points and 5.6 rebounds, Dion Dixon is averaging 13 points and 5.6 rebounds, and Cashmere Wright is averaging 10.2 points. As a team Cincinnati is averaging 66.4 points and they are shooting 45 percent from the floor while defensively they are allowing just 54.2 points and their opposition shoots just 36.1 percent against them. Cincinnati is a better team on paper than they have proved to be on the floor but this is a team dangerously close to ending their season before it even really gets started.
The Miami Ohio Redhawks are off to a 2-2 start this season and after playing Dayton and Xavier this is their third game against a rival. Charlie Coles has been around the block more than a few ties and despite Miami’s shortcomings he will get the most he can out of this team. Julian Mavunga is averaging 19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds, Bill Edwards is averaging 11.8 points and 8.0 rebounds, Josh Sewell is averaging 7.5 points and 5.0 rebounds, and Jon Harris is averaging 7.5 points. As a team Miami is averaging 65 points and they are shooting 42.7 percent while defensively they are allowing 64.5 points and their opposition shoots 43.1 percent. Miami clearly is a team that has their work cut out for them this year.
Cincinnati is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against the MAC, 10-21 against the spread in their last 31 home games, and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight non-conference games. Miami is 7-1 against the spread following a game which they didn’t cover, 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, and 104 against the spread in their last five games against Big East teams. Miami is 2-5 against the spread in the last seven meetings of these two.
The line here is set at 12 and it is simply too high for a Cincinnati team that just isn’t putting the ball in the basket. The Bearcats have the better team but it hasn’t worked for them in their two losses but I expect them to get the win but not the cover.
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