Photo credit: J. Conrad Williams Jr. | A Southwest Airline 737 plane taxis past the air traffic control tower at MacArthur Airport. (March 16, 2010)
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Reduced passenger demand this Thanksgiving has led airlines to cut the number of available flights, meaning crowded planes and fewer options for last-minute travelers, analysts said Thursday.
Officials with the Air Transit Association said Thursday that 23.2 million travelers will fly on domestic and international routes during the 12-day holiday period, which runs from Nov. 18, to Nov. 29. That's down 2 percent from 2010, analysts said.
John Heimlich, chief economist with the Air Transit Association, said that during the first nine months of 2011, revenue for the airline industry was up 12 percent. However, increased fuel prices have led to a 16 percent spike in operating costs, Heimlich said. He said airlines are looking to match lower seat demand with seating capacity on airliners to make each flight as efficient a moneymaker as possible.
"So it's not surprising that we've seen a trend toward reduced capacity," Heimlich said during a conference call with reporters Thursday.
That could mean packed planes and fewer travel options, experts said.
For ticket buyers who haven't yet firmed up holiday travel plans, officials said they can expect to pay more when shopping for last-minute airfares.
Tickets for airlines on high-volume travel days are averaging $40 more this year than last year, according to FareCompare .com, a travel website that analyzes airfare and airline capacity. Daily passenger volume during the Thanksgiving holiday will range from 1.3 million to 2.3 million. The busiest days will be Nov. 27 and Nov. 28, followed by Nov. 18.
Load factors -- a measure of how full airplanes will be over the holiday -- are expected to be above 80 percent.
A slow-growing economy and an unemployment rate of more than 9 percent in September is driving the slow-demand projections, Heimlich said.
The Washington, D.C. -based association expects demand for flights over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend to be down 12 percent from its peak in 2006.
Tom Parsons, who operates the website BestFare.com, which tracks airline ticket prices, said fares on domestic carriers are 10 percent to 15 percent more expensive than last year.
Discount carriers Southwest, AirTran , JetBlue and Virgin Atlantic have offered ticket sales that cover the Thanksgiving travel period. But if customers wait too long before making a purchase, they risk 10-day advance sale restrictions, Parsons said. "You've got to act now," he said.
Security at airports will be increased for holiday travel, experts said. The more prepared travelers are to pass through checkpoints, the quicker security lines will move, said Lisa Farbstein, a spokeswoman for the Transportation Security Administration .
That means having identification out, coats and shoes off, and laptop computers out of carry-on luggage.
"Passengers who are prepared for security screening at the checkpoint will help streamline the process," Farbstein said.
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