You've got the first pick in your fantasy football draft. Who will it be? TheMinnesota Vikings'Adrian Petersonor theHouston Texans' Arian Foster?
There are two backs at the top ofeveryone’s draft chart. It’s borderline unanimous. Adrian Peterson, a top fantasy football running back since his rookie season, versus Arian Foster, a monster who broke onto the scene in 2010. There is a clear argument to be made for drafting either one of these stars, but which one will be better?
We’ll compare them in five different categories to find out exactly which of these running backs you should be taking with your first overall pick.
Who's More Consistent?
Adrian Peterson has been a Pro Bowl back since his rookie season in 2007. His worst statistical year found him totaling 1,298 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has the third-highest yards-per-game average in the history of theNFL, behind Barry Sanders and Jim Brown.
Impressed yet?
There is no disputing that this man can run. Peterson is averaging 320 carries per season over the last three years. He has been a top-five fantasy running back in all of his first four NFL seasons. So, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he is a superhero. That’s basically what it comes down to.
Arian Foster has not had as much experience as Peterson, but looking at his 2010 numbers, he still ranks pretty high on the consistency scale. Foster played all 16 games last season and had over 2,200 all-purpose yards. That’s more than 135 yards per game, and still 101 yards per game if you only count rushing. He could have skipped for more yardage than Ryan Mathews or Shonn Greene, two guys who were drafted far before him.
There are some questions about his ability to repeat those numbers this season based on injuries, personality and position competition, but you can rest assured, this man is no one-hit wonder. And let’s not forget that Houston has a history of getting bored with star running backs.
Because the numbers are indisputable, though, I have to give the edge to Peterson.
Adrian Peterson was not in the greatest of systems last year and still put up 1,639 all-purpose yards. This year, he has a solid quarterback in Donovan McNabb, which is bound to create more fear of the Vikings' passing game than Brett Favre managed to do in 2010. Last season, even with every defense stacking the box, Peterson managed the numbers he did. Just imagine what he is capable of once there is a passing threat involved.
Peterson also sees very little competition at running back asToby Gerhart has not developed enoughto put a dent in anyone’s playing time. The Vikings' only other real scoring threat is tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, meaning Peterson will not be a stranger to the goal line.
As the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Vikings, Peterson is guaranteed over 300 carries, and if he can average 4.8 yards per carry, he will amass over 1,440 rush yards in 2011.
Arian Foster’s Houston Texans team is a little more noisy than the Vikings, which has both advantages and disadvantages. The Texans love to throw the ball. And why not, when you have Andre Johnson, the No. 1-ranked receiver in fantasy football, to pass to?
Another favorite target, Owen Daniels, is back in the picture, but you have to remember that Foster is no slouch when it comes to receptions. Because defenses are forced to respect the Texans' passing game, Foster sees a lot more open lanes than Peterson does.
Another change on the Texans comes in the backfield with the key loss of Vonta Leach. Leach is arguably the best fullback in the game, and made a lot of big holes for Foster last season. More change comes in the arrival of a healthy Ben Tate. Tate missed all of last season with an injury and has come on strong this preseason. He’s a big back that is sure to take some of the goal-line work away from Foster, likely dropping his touchdown total from the 16 he scored a season ago.
Two completely different systems are in play here: one where Peterson is the unquestionable star, and another full of weapons.
I’m going to have to call this a draw.
Adrian Peterson plays a role in the Vikings' passing game, but it is by no means a truly explosive one. In 2010, Peterson caught just 36 passes for 341 yards. In his best season he caught 43 passes for 436 yards, and during his NFL career he has scored just two receiving touchdowns.
That being said, he hasn’t had a whole lot of quarterback talent in the past, which may change his receiving game this season. Since 2007, Peterson has been blessed with the quarterback play of Tarvaris Jackson, Kelly Holcomb, Brooks Bollinger, Gus Frerotte,Brett FavreandJoe Webb.
Perhaps there will be a turnaround with McNabb coming to town. He has had success throwing to running backs on his previous teams, most notably during his time withBrian Westbrookand LeSean McCoy inPhiladelphia.
Arian Foster was no one-trick pony in his breakout 2010 NFL season. Foster wrangled in 66 receptions for two touchdowns and 604 yards, a 9.2 yard-per-catch average. That is 105 points in a .5 PPR league, which is a huge advantage over many other backs.
You can expect these numbers to keep up as receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels continue to take a lot of attention, leaving Foster open for a handful of receptions per game.
Edge clearly goes to Arian Foster on this one.
Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings are in a pretty tough division when in terms of rush defense but that has never slowed him down in the past, and there is no reason to think that it will this year.
In Week 16, a likely spot of your fantasy football championship, Peterson and the Vikes will be up against theWashington Redskins, last season's seventh-worst team against the rush.
Arian Foster will be going up against three pretty awful run defenses to end the season, which means that your playoff schedule with Foster is pretty solid. In addition to playing in an already weak defensive division, the Texans will be facingCincinnati(19th vs. the run),Carolina(23rd),Indianapolis(25th) andTennessee(20th) in their last four games of the season.
Both players proved last year that they can hold their own against whomever they face, but when it comes to the fantasy playoffs, Arian Foster easily has the edge.
Adrian Peterson is a highlight reel. ESPN could dedicate a day to his career, and I’d probably take off work to watch it. One of the things that make him so great to own in fantasy leagues is that what you see is what you get. He knows that his job is to run you over and that is what he is going to do.
Peterson has very little in the way of competition at his position. He is everything you want in a player when they are off the field. There is very little risk of injury keeping him out of games. He has a consistent quarterback for the first time in his career. And, as previously stated, he is a complete red-zone threat.
The Minnesota Vikings offense advances the ball one way: through Adrian Peterson.
Arian Foster is a bit more of a handful. While there is no denying his talent, there are a few questions that tend to come up. When you have the best wide receiver in the NFL, it's plain to see that Foster has a passing game to contend with. In addition, a healthy Ben Tate has returned to compete with him for goal-line carries. We all remember what happened to Steve Slaton after his one elite year.
Coaches and the media have mentioned his attitude, but this is fantasy football, not Dr. Phil. He has been kept out of a lot of practices and a preseason game this year with an injured hamstring, which could bother him later in the season.
I’m more comfortable knowing exactly what I can expect. Adrian Peterson is the man.
So Who Will It Be? Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster?
Those of you keeping score at home will see that it is two to two, but you know that I am not the kind of guy who would leave you like that. I didn’t just spend the last two hours of my life researching these guys only to be inconclusive.
Both players are flashy. Both can put up insane statistics. Last year we watched Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster blow up defenses, no matter their rank. We watched them pile on the yardage on the ground and through the air while scoring touchdowns in important games like they were pregame warmups. Both men have talent, and you can make a case for either.
But there is one true edge between them: consistency.
It all comes down to which running back you trust more to get you over 1,300 yards and 10 scores.
When it comes to value, consistent value, there is no better pick than Adrian Peterson.
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