Saturday, December 24, 2011

Ohio money, not voters, will pick GOP nominee | CommunityPress.com | cincinnati.com

Lucky us.

We get two primary elections next year.

All because of the dispute between Republicans and Democrats in Columbus over the GOP-drawn congressional district map, which the Ohio Supreme Court says is subject to a challenge by referendum petition, which is exactly what the Ohio Democratic Party intends to do unless they can work out a more "fair" map with statehouse Republicans.

Don't hold your breath.

It looked for a while there as if Ohio would have its presidential primary on March 6 - "Super Tuesday' - and be right in the thick of the final battle for the Republican presidential nomination. The cables news networks would have been swarming the state; the GOP presidential candidates would be taking up residence here; and we would all have a big ol' time watching them bloody each other up - just like we did in the spring of 2008, when Ohioans got to watch Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton mud-wrestle their way through Ohio's Democratic presidential primary.

No such luck this time.

There will be a primary election in Ohio on March 6, it seems - but it will only be races that don't involve candidates circulating in each of Ohio's 16 congressional districts.

That means it will be a primary featuring the U.S. Senate candidates on the GOP side (Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown is up for re-election), and possibly for county offices and state legislative seats. The filing deadline for those races is Dec. 7. Interesting races, all, but that doesn't get you on CNN or Fox News.

Then, on June 12, there will be a second Ohio primary election - this one for candidates for Ohio's 16 congressional districts and the presidential candidates, who must qualify for the ballot by collecting signatures in each of the congressional districts.

That's 11 weeks before the Republican National Convention gavels into session in Tampa.

By June, according to CNN's primary and caucus schedule, every state in the union will have chosen its favorite for the GOP nomination except Utah.

And if the GOP nomination comes down to Utah, the Republican Party might as well concede the presidential election and turn over the St. Pete Times Forum in Tampa to a monster truck jam or a Hank Williams Jr. concert.

Ohio Republican primary voters may not have much to say about who their nominee will be - that will likely be decided long before the moveable feast of primaries and caucuses gets here - but that is not to say Ohio won't have anything to say about who gets the nomination.

There is a little thing called money.

And Ohio Republicans have a lot of it to give, particularly down in our corner of the state.

In the 2008 election, Ohioans pitched in $9.5 million to GOP candidates in the primary and general elections.

In 2008, Mitt Romney - the kinda, sorta front-runner - raked it in here in Ohio for his failed bid for the GOP nomination - $1.3 million, more than half of which came from the Cincinnati area.

So far, he's ahead of the pack in fund-raising in Ohio among the GOP contenders - he's raised $431,353 here so far, according to Federal Election Commission reports. Nearly $300,000 of that has come from Southwest Ohio. Former Texas governor Rick Perry has raised $283,180 in Ohio so far, while Texas congressman Ron Paul - a tea party favorite - is the only other GOP contender in six figures with $152,460.

Herman Cain, the former CEO of Godfather's Pizza, has become the flavor-of-the-month among Republicans who want anybody but Romney; and he held a slight lead over Romney among Republicans nationally in last week's NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

Cain was in Cincinnati Oct. 13, making nice with potential GOP donors but so far it hasn't paid off.

Inside Cincinnati's Republican circles, it is said that the money people in town were at first skittish about Romney, given the fact that they poured their money down the drain with him in 2008; and some were even among those cajoling New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie into running, who has said 27 different ways that he is not running, which makes one tend to believe him.

Now, the insiders say, the money in this end of Ohio is turning back to Romney, which could help him fend off the Cains and Perrys of the world.

Most Ohio Republicans won't have much to say about who their nominee will be.

The exception will be those writing the checks.

Howard Wilkinson's column runs on Sundays. He can be reached at hwilkinson@enquirer.com.

Source: http://communitypress.cincinnati.com